A few weeks back, I went with some friends to watch a League One game between two teams who are finding it tough going at present in terms of league position. The home side are, shall we say, tough to beat on their own turf yet do find it difficult to win matches. The match ended 0-0, much to the displeasure of sections of the home crowd. Following on from that, I kept an eye on some of the social media threads that followed and saw lots of suggestions that people might start to 'talk with their feet' and saw those that may stop attending have their fandom questioned.
This idea of talking with your feet and seeing the attendances drop got me thinking, should fans be seen as 'plastics' or lacking dedication to the team if they don't attend as much if the team are struggling? Is there a responsibility on the team to entertain? To provide a 'product'? Are these so called plastics actually vital for teams to move forward? Should clubs do more in an attempt to keep these fans engaged?
I wanted to take a look at some of the available data for the average attendances of some football clubs and also a look at similar figures available from different sports to get a broader view of the statistics. They are, however, relatively easy to find and don't throw up anything you wouldn't expect. The main intrigue is what people think about the idea of people being plastic fans and whether, in fact, they are vital to football clubs.
The Stats
I wanted to have a look at some attendance stats, predominantly for some teams who have experienced divisional changes. The first side I had a look at was Sheffield United, who were winning promotion from League 1 as little as six years ago and have had two seasons in the Premier League between then and being back in the Chamionship for a second successive season. The average attendance for the Blades across the 2015/16 and 2016/17 seasons was just shy of 21000 and this rose by almost 5500 over the two Championship seasons. Their time in the Premier League was impacted by Covid, however, the avilable data shows a further increase of 4500, meaning in the three years from the start of their League One promotion campaign to the Premier League, over 10000 extra fans were in attendance. Whilst you would expect to see attendances increase when a team reaches 'the big league' but does a near 43% increase in average attendance come from anywhere other than 'plastic' fans?
The second club I looked at was (crisis club- certainly before a take over) Scunthorpe United, a side who have experienced the highs of the Championship to the lows of dropping out of the Football League in a little over a decade. Many would and have argued that Scunthorpe were punching above their weight even being in the second tier and were never achieving Championship level attendances (the ground holding 9000 would be an issue anyway). In 2009/10, they were averaging almost 6500 in the Championship before seeing that drop by close to 1000 in the season they were relegated to League One. By the time they were relegated from League One in 2013, the average number of people through the door had dropped to less than 3500. A League Two promotion season saw an extra 500 return but this then dropped in the league above until getting back to around 4500 when finishing 3rd. More recently, the season they were relegated from League Two saw less than 3000 people through the gates, meaning a near 54% drop in average attendances from the Championship to League Two. Again, this may seem an obvious thing, and I know Scunthorpe have had off field issues, but the numbers of those that have stopped attending is incredible. Whether those who are staying away have done so due to the slide down the leagues or the ownership issues is something only they would be able to answer.
Oldham Athletic, the side to join Scunthorpe in Football League relegation, are slightly different to what we have seen previously in that they are averaging more now in the National League than they did in their two decades in League One (the Second Division) from 1997 to 2018. During their lengthy stay in the third tier, attendances slowly dropped from just above 6000 to just below 4500. Looking completely from the outside, was this boredom?! The relegation from the Premier League being quickly followed by the drop into Division Two and the possibility of a quick return to the top league completely over- speculation of course. There may well be a bounce after the change in ownership to 'one of their own' and the near 7000 average for a side struggling towards the bottom of the National League is a very good return. Are these fans plastic? Surely they can't be to jump on the struggling bandwagon and instead could be returning fans after the previous owners left - speculation again, of course.
Another club who have continued the trend of, shall we say, gaining fans during a successful period are my local league team Lincoln City. The Imps had enjoyed a period of relative success in the noughties when a team made up of mainly players from non league due to major financial issues made the play offs consistently but hit rock bottom attendance wise some ten years later. Following relegation from the League 2 and a dismal first season in the Conference, the average attendances had dropped as low as only just sitting above 2000. These attendances rose slightly but the club were in a mess during those Conference/National League years. The arrival of Clive Nates to the board and the subsequent hiring of the Cowley brothers to the dugout led to interest and attendances soaring- the peak being reached 2 years after the National League title when City won League 2 with an average attendance of over 9000. This meant that from the 2012-13 season to the 2018-19 season, there was an increase of over 350% in attendances. This raises the same questions - where have these fans come from? Are they new or returning? Are they plastic? Does it matter?
I also had a little look at whether other sports share the trend of higher attendances when success is happening on the field. In rugby union, Leicester Tigers have seen their attendances slowly fall since finishing 4th in 2016-17 with an average of 22889 to finishing 11th in 2019-20 with an average of less than 19800. The Exeter Chiefs have seen attendances rise beyond belief in the 20 seasons since finishing 3rd in the National Division to a 7th place finish in the Premiership in 2021-22 (the 5 seasons prior to 2021-22 saw two championships and 3 runners up placings). This is an almost 800% increase in average attendance. Hopping across the pond, I delved ever so slightly into the NFL and, more specifically the Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs and the New York Jets. The Jaguars seem to hover around a rough figure for a few years and then the consistent poor performances lead to a drop, before it goes up again to around the previous 'rough' figure. This is repeated a couple of times over the last 12 or so years. When a play off appearance is achieved, suggesting a more successful season, the average goes up slightly. The Chiefs have been fairly successful since 2015, winning the Super Bowl and losing another, as well as making the play off rounds regularly. Prior to 2015, they had flirted with attendaces of 70000 but not hit that mark consistently but are now averaging around 73000 - Covid season discounted. The Jets, however, appear to have been consistently rubbish for quite some time now but it was only last season that saw any significant change in their average attendances, dropping by around 7000.
The Value of Plastic
Of course, I very much doubt that any of what I have written above has surprised anyone - a team does well and the fans come, when they don't, they don't. It's pretty straight forward! However, can clubs progress without these added numbers coming through the turnstiles, buying merchandise and the like? In football, the attendances usually rise when the team have either achieved or are fighting for promotion so the question could be asked as to whether clubs could sustain a promotion without the increased gate revenue - without looking too hard, you'd assume no! Perhaps a promotion to the Premier League from the Championship would see the vast majority of new income be achieved through TV deals etc but promotions lower down the pyramid are surely reliant on more fans.
If we take Lincoln City as the focus, after their struggles in the National League, the successful first season under the Cowleys followed by a Wembley win and another league title meant that attendaces swelled by approximately 7000. Now, if we take that at even a £15 average ticket cost, that would equate to over £100000 per game and over £2.4 million over the season. (obviously that's not counting season tickets etc). That extra revenue is huge and surely must go someway to the club being able to sign the likes of Michael Bostwick, who would surely be classed as a cult figure at the club. Playing in a higher league will usually be accompanied by higher costs - buying better players means higher fees and wages- so, in order to truly compete a the higher level, more income is surely needed. The extra fans paying entry are also likely to purchase merchandise and refreshments which again adds to the increased revenue that all goes to aid the club as it progresses. Certainly in Lincoln's case, the success on the pitch led to a real feel good factor around the city and they rode on the crest of a wave for those 3 or 4 years - something that likely wouldn't have happened without the extra supporters.
The Plastic Legacy
Not only does the increased revenue benefit clubs in the present, there is the chance that those who start going during successful times will actually stay with the club in the future therefore maintaining higher average attendances. Better still, those new attendees will eventually bring their children who will become hooked on the team and stick by them through their adulthood. I am sure there will be a fair few people following Lincoln now who have family members that enjoyed the Taylor or Murphy years and they have since found the club to be a major part of their lives. Many of those may have formed the numbers who stuck with the club during their lowest points of Conference football.
When does Plastic Become Plastic?
I asked about to find the opinions of a few people on the issue. The general consensus was that they only become plastic if they start supporting during success and then leave without trace if times get hard. I know lads who have moved to cities for university and have ended up attending their newly local side and have since become season ticket holders and have travelled to some footballing outposts to support the team and so, not just because they are my mates, I wouldn't call these types of fans plastic.
There are, of course, reasons away from failure on the pitch as to why people may stop going to matches. The cost of football combined with the cost of living crisis meaning that disposable income is at a premium will be in the minds of many at present. There are also things like work patterns/shifts and family that could make it more difficult to attend matches on a regular basis. What Could Clubs Do?
One of the obvious examples here would be Bradford City. In the five year period from 1995 to 1999, the club rose from League 1 to finishing second in the Championship and earning Premier League football. In this time, their attendances went from just over 6000 to over 14000, with their first year in top flight seeing them top 18000 before a season which saw them relegated back to League 1 brought in less than 115000 suporters on a regular basis. So far, nothing you wouldn't expect. It is the period between 2005 and 2009 that something changes as they continue their slide down the leagues but saw a near 4000 increase on attendances and they continue to be healthy through yet another promotion and relegation cycle before settling at over 15000 last season as they finished outside play offs in League 2.
A big reason for this is likely to be the value of the season ticket that the club offers: for early bird purchases - an very impressive £198, which works out at less than £7 per game. The club, according to their website, have over 14000 season tickets which means an income of £2.7 million which is a figure that would mean many teams, with their lower number of season ticket holders, would have to be charging up to £700 to achieve. The risk that the club took by lowering prices to that level has clearly paid off and has meant that their average attendance is superb. Other clubs, with less of a fanbase and/or smaller stadiums, are unable to do this so the slashing of prices isn't an option for all.
Clubs, on the whole, do lots with their foundations in the community and visit schools etc to encourage the local children to attend games and may offer discounted tickets on occasion. The rising cost of living doesn't bypass clubs of course, and cutting ticket prices consistently or even permanently may have detrimental effects on their ability to financially compete. With football clubs being run more like businesses, should they be more on the ball with the identifying trends of fans attending or staying away and have ready made plans in order to combat it?
This idea of talking with your feet and seeing the attendances drop got me thinking, should fans be seen as 'plastics' or lacking dedication to the team if they don't attend as much if the team are struggling? Is there a responsibility on the team to entertain? To provide a 'product'? Are these so called plastics actually vital for teams to move forward? Should clubs do more in an attempt to keep these fans engaged?
I wanted to take a look at some of the available data for the average attendances of some football clubs and also a look at similar figures available from different sports to get a broader view of the statistics. They are, however, relatively easy to find and don't throw up anything you wouldn't expect. The main intrigue is what people think about the idea of people being plastic fans and whether, in fact, they are vital to football clubs.
The Stats
I wanted to have a look at some attendance stats, predominantly for some teams who have experienced divisional changes. The first side I had a look at was Sheffield United, who were winning promotion from League 1 as little as six years ago and have had two seasons in the Premier League between then and being back in the Chamionship for a second successive season. The average attendance for the Blades across the 2015/16 and 2016/17 seasons was just shy of 21000 and this rose by almost 5500 over the two Championship seasons. Their time in the Premier League was impacted by Covid, however, the avilable data shows a further increase of 4500, meaning in the three years from the start of their League One promotion campaign to the Premier League, over 10000 extra fans were in attendance. Whilst you would expect to see attendances increase when a team reaches 'the big league' but does a near 43% increase in average attendance come from anywhere other than 'plastic' fans?
The second club I looked at was (crisis club- certainly before a take over) Scunthorpe United, a side who have experienced the highs of the Championship to the lows of dropping out of the Football League in a little over a decade. Many would and have argued that Scunthorpe were punching above their weight even being in the second tier and were never achieving Championship level attendances (the ground holding 9000 would be an issue anyway). In 2009/10, they were averaging almost 6500 in the Championship before seeing that drop by close to 1000 in the season they were relegated to League One. By the time they were relegated from League One in 2013, the average number of people through the door had dropped to less than 3500. A League Two promotion season saw an extra 500 return but this then dropped in the league above until getting back to around 4500 when finishing 3rd. More recently, the season they were relegated from League Two saw less than 3000 people through the gates, meaning a near 54% drop in average attendances from the Championship to League Two. Again, this may seem an obvious thing, and I know Scunthorpe have had off field issues, but the numbers of those that have stopped attending is incredible. Whether those who are staying away have done so due to the slide down the leagues or the ownership issues is something only they would be able to answer.
Oldham Athletic, the side to join Scunthorpe in Football League relegation, are slightly different to what we have seen previously in that they are averaging more now in the National League than they did in their two decades in League One (the Second Division) from 1997 to 2018. During their lengthy stay in the third tier, attendances slowly dropped from just above 6000 to just below 4500. Looking completely from the outside, was this boredom?! The relegation from the Premier League being quickly followed by the drop into Division Two and the possibility of a quick return to the top league completely over- speculation of course. There may well be a bounce after the change in ownership to 'one of their own' and the near 7000 average for a side struggling towards the bottom of the National League is a very good return. Are these fans plastic? Surely they can't be to jump on the struggling bandwagon and instead could be returning fans after the previous owners left - speculation again, of course.
Another club who have continued the trend of, shall we say, gaining fans during a successful period are my local league team Lincoln City. The Imps had enjoyed a period of relative success in the noughties when a team made up of mainly players from non league due to major financial issues made the play offs consistently but hit rock bottom attendance wise some ten years later. Following relegation from the League 2 and a dismal first season in the Conference, the average attendances had dropped as low as only just sitting above 2000. These attendances rose slightly but the club were in a mess during those Conference/National League years. The arrival of Clive Nates to the board and the subsequent hiring of the Cowley brothers to the dugout led to interest and attendances soaring- the peak being reached 2 years after the National League title when City won League 2 with an average attendance of over 9000. This meant that from the 2012-13 season to the 2018-19 season, there was an increase of over 350% in attendances. This raises the same questions - where have these fans come from? Are they new or returning? Are they plastic? Does it matter?
I also had a little look at whether other sports share the trend of higher attendances when success is happening on the field. In rugby union, Leicester Tigers have seen their attendances slowly fall since finishing 4th in 2016-17 with an average of 22889 to finishing 11th in 2019-20 with an average of less than 19800. The Exeter Chiefs have seen attendances rise beyond belief in the 20 seasons since finishing 3rd in the National Division to a 7th place finish in the Premiership in 2021-22 (the 5 seasons prior to 2021-22 saw two championships and 3 runners up placings). This is an almost 800% increase in average attendance. Hopping across the pond, I delved ever so slightly into the NFL and, more specifically the Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs and the New York Jets. The Jaguars seem to hover around a rough figure for a few years and then the consistent poor performances lead to a drop, before it goes up again to around the previous 'rough' figure. This is repeated a couple of times over the last 12 or so years. When a play off appearance is achieved, suggesting a more successful season, the average goes up slightly. The Chiefs have been fairly successful since 2015, winning the Super Bowl and losing another, as well as making the play off rounds regularly. Prior to 2015, they had flirted with attendaces of 70000 but not hit that mark consistently but are now averaging around 73000 - Covid season discounted. The Jets, however, appear to have been consistently rubbish for quite some time now but it was only last season that saw any significant change in their average attendances, dropping by around 7000.
The Value of Plastic
Of course, I very much doubt that any of what I have written above has surprised anyone - a team does well and the fans come, when they don't, they don't. It's pretty straight forward! However, can clubs progress without these added numbers coming through the turnstiles, buying merchandise and the like? In football, the attendances usually rise when the team have either achieved or are fighting for promotion so the question could be asked as to whether clubs could sustain a promotion without the increased gate revenue - without looking too hard, you'd assume no! Perhaps a promotion to the Premier League from the Championship would see the vast majority of new income be achieved through TV deals etc but promotions lower down the pyramid are surely reliant on more fans.
If we take Lincoln City as the focus, after their struggles in the National League, the successful first season under the Cowleys followed by a Wembley win and another league title meant that attendaces swelled by approximately 7000. Now, if we take that at even a £15 average ticket cost, that would equate to over £100000 per game and over £2.4 million over the season. (obviously that's not counting season tickets etc). That extra revenue is huge and surely must go someway to the club being able to sign the likes of Michael Bostwick, who would surely be classed as a cult figure at the club. Playing in a higher league will usually be accompanied by higher costs - buying better players means higher fees and wages- so, in order to truly compete a the higher level, more income is surely needed. The extra fans paying entry are also likely to purchase merchandise and refreshments which again adds to the increased revenue that all goes to aid the club as it progresses. Certainly in Lincoln's case, the success on the pitch led to a real feel good factor around the city and they rode on the crest of a wave for those 3 or 4 years - something that likely wouldn't have happened without the extra supporters.
The Plastic Legacy
Not only does the increased revenue benefit clubs in the present, there is the chance that those who start going during successful times will actually stay with the club in the future therefore maintaining higher average attendances. Better still, those new attendees will eventually bring their children who will become hooked on the team and stick by them through their adulthood. I am sure there will be a fair few people following Lincoln now who have family members that enjoyed the Taylor or Murphy years and they have since found the club to be a major part of their lives. Many of those may have formed the numbers who stuck with the club during their lowest points of Conference football.
When does Plastic Become Plastic?
I asked about to find the opinions of a few people on the issue. The general consensus was that they only become plastic if they start supporting during success and then leave without trace if times get hard. I know lads who have moved to cities for university and have ended up attending their newly local side and have since become season ticket holders and have travelled to some footballing outposts to support the team and so, not just because they are my mates, I wouldn't call these types of fans plastic.
There are, of course, reasons away from failure on the pitch as to why people may stop going to matches. The cost of football combined with the cost of living crisis meaning that disposable income is at a premium will be in the minds of many at present. There are also things like work patterns/shifts and family that could make it more difficult to attend matches on a regular basis. What Could Clubs Do?
One of the obvious examples here would be Bradford City. In the five year period from 1995 to 1999, the club rose from League 1 to finishing second in the Championship and earning Premier League football. In this time, their attendances went from just over 6000 to over 14000, with their first year in top flight seeing them top 18000 before a season which saw them relegated back to League 1 brought in less than 115000 suporters on a regular basis. So far, nothing you wouldn't expect. It is the period between 2005 and 2009 that something changes as they continue their slide down the leagues but saw a near 4000 increase on attendances and they continue to be healthy through yet another promotion and relegation cycle before settling at over 15000 last season as they finished outside play offs in League 2.
A big reason for this is likely to be the value of the season ticket that the club offers: for early bird purchases - an very impressive £198, which works out at less than £7 per game. The club, according to their website, have over 14000 season tickets which means an income of £2.7 million which is a figure that would mean many teams, with their lower number of season ticket holders, would have to be charging up to £700 to achieve. The risk that the club took by lowering prices to that level has clearly paid off and has meant that their average attendance is superb. Other clubs, with less of a fanbase and/or smaller stadiums, are unable to do this so the slashing of prices isn't an option for all.
Clubs, on the whole, do lots with their foundations in the community and visit schools etc to encourage the local children to attend games and may offer discounted tickets on occasion. The rising cost of living doesn't bypass clubs of course, and cutting ticket prices consistently or even permanently may have detrimental effects on their ability to financially compete. With football clubs being run more like businesses, should they be more on the ball with the identifying trends of fans attending or staying away and have ready made plans in order to combat it?
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